= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Solar activity returned to low levels this past week. The strongest
event of the period was a C1.8 flare on February 17 from region
4374. This region was also responsible for a C1.4 flare on February
18. The only other flare of note was a C1.1 flare on February 17
from an unnumbered plage region near S05E85. A plage region is a
bright, intensely hot region in the Suns chromosphere, typically
found in active areas surrounding sunspots.  Region 4374 exhibited
minor decay through the dissipation of its trailing spots. Regions
4375 and 4377 were largely unchanged in area and complexity.  A
large filament eruption beyond the southwest limb was seen in SDO
and SUVI imagery starting approximately February 18. It was
associated with a Type II radio sweep that began on February 18 with
an estimated shock velocity of 310 km/s. The eruption was first
visible in coronagraph imagery on February 18, but initial analysis
indicates no Earth directed component. Solar activity is forecast to
be at low levels, with a slight chance for M class, or R1 to R2, or
minor to moderate, flares through February 20.  Solar wind
parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a positive
polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. Solar wind speed followed a
general declining trend, decreasing from an initial peak near 600
km/s to approximately 500 km/s by the end of the reporting period.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through
February 20 due to continued but weakening CH HSS influences.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, February 19, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Overall solar
activity was relatively high in the first week of February, with the
number of sunspot groups on the solar disk ranging from seven to
nine. Over the next ten days, we observed an almost uninterrupted
decline, at the end of which there were only three sunspot groups
remaining on the disk.  Significant eruptions could only occur in
one of them AR 4374.  Before it set behind the western limb of the
solar disk, one of the few more powerful eruptions was observed in
it. It happened on February 16, with the peak at 0436 UT,
accompanied by a CME, partially heading towards Earth. The arrival
was expected on February 19. Although it did so at 1501 UT, Earth
only encountered the edge of the particle cloud, and in fact, almost
nothing happened.  Geomagnetic activity was elevated on February 15
and 16. The phenomenon began with a positive phase of disturbance in
the evening hours, during which there was a noticeable improvement
in shortwave propagation conditions. A significant deterioration
naturally followed on February 16, partially also on February 17.
Any geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of the predicted period
should be short, while another disturbance can be expected around
February 24. Given that solar activity will be on the rise again at
that time, a positive phase of the disturbance can be expected.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on February 24 and 25, and on March 5 to 7 due to recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on
March 12 following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on
March 14 with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Barring the
potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected until February 23, and then February 26 to March 4.  The
Predicted Planetary A Index is 5, 5, 8, 20, 20, 8, and 5, with a
mean of 10.1.  The Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3,
and 2, with a mean of 3.1.  10.7 centimeter flux is 105, 120, 130,
135, 130, 130, and 140, with a mean of 127.1.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <